Tottenham Lead West Ham Remaining Fixtures Relegation Battle at 59.4% - West Ham Remaining Fixtures
Tottenham Hotspur now carry a 59.4% chance of going down, while West Ham United are next at 37.3%. The west ham remaining fixtures picture has tightened around those two clubs, with Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley already headed for the 2026-27 Championship. Three of the four teams closest to the final bottom-three spot still have to face at least one fellow candidate for the drop.
Tottenham and West Ham percentages
The Supercomputer runs the remaining Premier League fixtures 10,000 times and blends betting-market odds with the Opta Power Rankings to estimate the table. In that model, Nottingham Forest sit at 1.95 per cent for relegation and Leeds United at 1.22 per cent, leaving Tottenham and West Ham as the most exposed clubs outside the two already-relegated sides.
Newcastle United sit 14th and eight points clear of the drop, but they have lost nine of their past 12 games. That slide keeps them in the conversation around the bottom half and makes the gap behind them worth watching as the remaining matches narrow the field.
Leeds United visit Tottenham
Leeds United go to Tottenham on May 11, then travel to West Ham on the final day of the season on May 24. Those two fixtures land inside the same 23-day window that could decide which club joins Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley in the 2026-27 Championship.
Danny Higginbotham, who went down with Derby County in 2002 and with Southampton three years later, said relegation six-pointers feel different. “There’s just a different feeling around it,” he said, adding, “It’s really weird, because when people say, ‘Oh, you’ve got three cup finals left or four cup finals left’ (such are the importance of matches like these), that’s bizarrely how it can feel.”
Robert Huth on the pressure
Robert Huth, who was part of Leicester City’s 1-0 win against Burnley in April of the 2014-15 season, called that kind of game “It’s horrible” and also described it as “probably the worst game of football I’ve ever played in”. He added: “You just don’t play with any freedom whatsoever because you know what’s at stake,” and said, “If you lose and they (the opponents) go three or four points ahead of you, you know the games are running out.”
Huth also said those matches are often “really, really cagey; edgy, poor standard.” Leicester’s win over Burnley moved them out of the relegation zone with five matches left, a reminder of how quickly the table can shift when clubs at the bottom start meeting each other directly.
For Tottenham and West Ham, the numbers point to a race that could turn on those head-to-head games. Tottenham are the likelier club to fall, but West Ham’s 37.3 per cent chance leaves no real margin for error before Leeds arrive at both grounds.
