Vistry Group on 13 May said its 2026 adjusted profit before tax should land in the mid-range of analysts’ forecasts after it reported a higher sales rate and made “excellent progress” toward its financial objectives. The update gives shareholders a cleaner read on the housebuilder’s recovery after a run of profit warnings and forecast cuts since September 2024.
2026 PBT Range at Vistry Group
£168m to £283m is the forecast band Vistry is now pointing to for 2026 adjusted PBT, and the company said it expects to sit in the middle of that range. The shift follows a trading update that also flagged “the use of increased incentives and discounts” as higher than anticipated, a reminder that the sales lift is not coming without margin pressure.
13 May 2026 also brought the company’s clearest statement yet on operating momentum: sales rates have increased and progress has been “excellent”. For investors, that matters because the group is trying to show that the 2024 profit resets were not a permanent break in earnings power, but the latest guidance still sits inside an analyst range rather than above it.
2024 Forecast Cuts at Vistry
£80m was knocked off expected 2024 adjusted profit before tax in October 2024 after Vistry disclosed that one of its divisions had underestimated total build costs by around 10%, taking the forecast down to £350m. Another £25m was removed in November 2024 after an internal review showed the sums were wrong again, deepening the hit to earnings expectations before year-end.
Christmas Eve 2024 brought “delays to expected year-end transactions and completions”, and Vistry said net debt was now expected to be around £200m instead of a previously forecast neutral position. By December 2024 the strain showed up in the shareholding structure too, when the group was relegated from the FTSE 100.
Social Housing Programme Turnover
Two-thirds of Vistry’s completions are affordable homes, and the group works with local authorities, housing associations and private rented sector bodies to deliver them. Vistry said activity is “relatively subdued” while the industry moves between phases of the government’s Social Affordable Housing Programme, and it expects bids for money from the 2026 to 2036 scheme to be known shortly.
April 2026 brought a new chief executive into the role, and the next demand inflection Vistry sees is a “step up in demand… towards the end of 2026 and into 2027”. If that timing holds, the 13 May update suggests the company is trying to bridge a muted transition period without losing the sales-rate gains it has just posted.
