USDA Reduces Corn and Soybean Yields and Production
The USDA has recently updated its projections for corn and soybean yields and production, reflecting significant adjustments in their estimates. These changes could have a substantial impact on the agricultural market for the 2025-26 crop year.
USDA Reduces Corn Yields and Production
The USDA has reduced the national average corn yield to 186 bushels per acre for the 2025-26 crop year. This marks a decrease from previous forecasts. The total U.S. corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion bushels.
Exports for corn are projected to rise modestly. The USDA has set the estimation for corn exports at 3.075 billion bushels, which is an increase of 100 million bushels compared to earlier projections. However, the agency has also raised the old-crop ending stocks by 207 million bushels, leading to higher beginning stocks for the new crop at 1.532 billion bushels.
Global Corn Projections
- Global corn production is expected at 1,286.23 million metric tons, a slight decrease from earlier estimates.
- Beginning stocks for global corn are forecasted at 291.66 million metric tons, an increase from September’s forecast.
- Global corn exports are projected at 203.47 million metric tons, affecting the global ending stocks, now estimated at 281.34 million metric tons.
U.S. Soybean Adjustments
For soybeans, the USDA forecasts a national yield of 53 bushels per acre, down from 53.5 bushels in the previous report. The total production of soybeans is now pegged at 4.253 billion bushels.
Adjustments in supply and demand for soybeans are notable. The agency estimates total domestic use at 4.3 billion bushels, down from 4.351 billion bushels. Ending stocks are revised down to 290 million bushels, a decrease from September.
Global Soybean Overview
- Ending stocks for global soybeans are projected at 121.99 million metric tons, down from 123.99 metric tons in September.
- Brazil is expected to harvest 175 million metric tons, while Argentina is estimated at 48.5 million metric tons, both figures remaining unchanged from previous estimates.
Wheat Production Remains Steady
The USDA has maintained its estimate for U.S. wheat production at 1.985 billion bushels, consistent with previous forecasts. Ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year have increased to 901 million bushels.
Global Wheat Statistics
- Global wheat production is projected to reach 828.89 million metric tons, slightly up from September’s estimate.
- Argentina’s wheat production is pegged at 22 million metric tons, increasing from earlier estimates.
- European Union production stands at 142.30 million metric tons, reflecting a positive adjustment from the last report.
Livestock Market Insights
The latest WASDE report indicates concerning trends for both beef and pork markets. Beef production for 2025 is adjusted down by 70 million pounds, with expectations for 2026 also showing a decrease.
Pork production has similarly declined, reflecting reduced slaughter speeds. Hog prices are projected to remain depressed, with average prices for upcoming quarters expected to reflect this trend.
Overall, these USDA updates on corn and soybean yields and production, along with insights on wheat and livestock, highlight the evolving landscape of the agricultural sector. Stakeholders are advised to stay informed through reliable reports and analyses.
