Rocket Lab Poised for Record Q4 Revenue, Eyes Seventh Consecutive Estimate Beat
Rocket Lab Corp (NASDAQ:RKLB) is gearing up for its fourth-quarter financial results, which are scheduled to be released Thursday after market close. The company is expected to provide key updates on recent contract wins and its launch schedule.
Fourth Quarter Earnings Estimates
Analysts predict Rocket Lab will generate approximately $178.07 million in fourth-quarter revenue. This figure signifies a substantial increase from $132.39 million reported during the same quarter last year. Such growth would mark the third consecutive quarter in which the company has set a new revenue record, exceeding the previous high of $155.1 million recorded in the third quarter.
- Estimated Revenue: $178.07 million
- Prior Year Revenue: $132.39 million
- Expected Loss per Share: $0.09 (an improvement from a loss of $0.10 in Q4 2022)
Rocket Lab has consistently surpassed revenue estimates, achieving this in six out of the last six quarters and seven out of the last ten overall. The company has met earnings expectations in two of the last ten quarters.
Analyst Ratings and Stock Performance
Recent analyst ratings show a mixed sentiment toward Rocket Lab shares:
- Goldman Sachs: Maintained Neutral rating, raised price target from $47 to $69
- Bank of America Securities: Maintained Buy rating, raised price target from $60 to $120
- Morgan Stanley: Upgraded from Equal-Weight to Overweight, raised price target from $67 to $105
- KeyBanc: Downgraded from Overweight to Sector Weight, no price target set
The stock closed at $70.20, reflecting a slight increase of 0.33%. This marks a decline of 7.6% year-to-date in 2026, following a more than 200% rise in value during 2025.
Key Developments in Q4
During this quarter, Rocket Lab secured 17 Electron launch contracts and anticipates surpassing its previous annual launch record. Insights into these launches and additional contract wins are expected to be highlighted in the company’s upcoming financial results.
CEO Peter Beck expressed optimism regarding the upcoming launches, including the company’s 80th and 81st, scheduled for January 22 and January 30. Beck noted, “Two launches in eight days is a strong start to the year that speaks volumes about the demand for Electron.” He foresees an even busier launch year in 2026.
Rocket Lab is also part of the Pentagon’s Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) contract, known as part of the Golden Dome initiative. Detailed insights into this contract and other recent wins may be communicated in the earnings report, alongside updates regarding any launch setbacks, including the recently scrubbed HASTE launch.
