ECMWF Raises Super El Niño 2026 Odds to 100% by November
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts says super el niño 2026 is now expected to form by November, with its May long-range forecast putting the chance at 100%. Back in March, the same model data reached only through September and gave that threshold about a 55% chance.
The forecast points to a season that would likely suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing activity in the Eastern Pacific. It also calls for 13 named storms and 6 hurricanes, slightly below the average season of 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
ECMWF May forecast
The latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is the clearest signal yet that the strongest El Niño ever is likely to form by November. The model also shows Atlantic water temperatures rising to above average for most of the season, while below-average tropical activity covers most of the Atlantic Main Development Region.
Near the U.S. Mainland, the ECMWF shows near-normal activity and above-average precipitation in the northern Gulf. That leaves the main shift for U.S. readers not in storm count alone, but in where the wettest stretches are most likely to concentrate.
Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
A strong El Niño would typically mean less tropical activity in the Atlantic and more activity in the Eastern Pacific. Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific begins on May 15, followed by the Atlantic hurricane season on June 1, so the new forecast arrives before both basins are fully underway.
For the Atlantic basin, the combination of warmer water and below-average development across the Main Development Region sits alongside the model’s call for near-normal activity near the U.S. Mainland. For the Eastern Pacific, the forecast suggests a busier season as El Niño conditions develop.
South and Southeast rainfall
The forecast also shows above-average rain across the South, with wetter fall and winter conditions expected in the southern U.S. The FOX Forecast Center says those winter months should be beneficial for the Southeast, which is deep in drought.
For readers in the South and Gulf states, the practical shift is not just the number of storms. It is the growing expectation that the wetter pattern could extend beyond summer into fall and winter, while the Atlantic main development zone stays less active than average.
