Okta Faces 36.6% Gap to $123.40 Valuation
okta is trading below a valuation estimate that puts its intrinsic value at about $123.40 per share, versus a current share price of about $78.20. Simply Wall St’s model places that gap at roughly 36.6%, giving investors a clear split between market price and modeled cash-flow value.
Okta’s $123.40 estimate
Simply Wall St used a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model for Okta and gave the stock 2 out of 6 on its valuation checks. The firm’s cash-flow view matters because it starts with Okta’s latest twelve month Free Cash Flow of about $859.7 million and then projects about $831.6 million in 2026 before rising to around $1,302.45 million in 2031.
Valuation checks versus peers
The stock now trades on a P/E of about 58.9x, which sits above the broader IT industry average of about 22.6x and also above the selected peer average of around 51.6x. That leaves Okta looking expensive on earnings alone, even as the cash-flow model points to a lower share price than the model’s intrinsic value.
Two narrative fair values
Simply Wall St also said narrative fair values around US$133.38 and US$75.03 could both come from different assumptions. That spread shows how sensitive Okta’s valuation is to the inputs behind the model, so the real issue for investors is which cash-flow path they think is more believable.
For readers weighing the stock now, the practical question is whether Okta deserves to trade closer to the model’s $123.40 estimate or to the market’s $78.20 price. The answer depends on whether the projected cash-flow path holds, because the same company can screen very differently when its assumptions move.
