NOAA Raises Pacific Ocean El Niño Odds to Two-in-Three
NOAA says the developing El Niño in the pacific ocean will begin within the month, after sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific rose to around 0.5C above normal this week. Forecasters now put the chance of a strong or very strong event at two-in-three by this winter, with the event expected to strengthen over the next few months.
Nathanial Johnson, a NOAA meteorologist, called the current warming pattern a "rare occurrence" if it continues at this pace. NOAA says the event could peak in the autumn as a very strong or so-called super El Niño, a shift that forecasters are tracking by watching the Niño3.4 region and comparing a three-month average of sea surface temperature with the long-term average.
Nino3.4 and NOAA thresholds
Forecasters treat the Niño3.4 reading as a key marker because a strong or super El Niño starts when that region rises above 1.5C. NOAA's call is close to the line already, and the Bureau of Meteorology uses a slightly stricter threshold of 0.8C above average in the tropical Pacific, along with signs that the trade winds in the western Pacific have reversed.
Johnson said warming above 2.5C by autumn would amount to a "historically strong event." That wording matters because the current forecast is not a routine seasonal update; it is a warning that the tropical Pacific may be moving toward the kind of heat signal scientists watch for when the atmosphere and ocean begin to lock together.
Forecasts point to 2027 risk
The source material links this forecast to concerns about global weather pattern changes and the possibility of 2027 being the warmest year on record. Spring forecasts of El Niño have often been poor, yet forecasters this year say NOAA, ECMWF and the Bureau of Meteorology are largely aligned, and more than half of ECMWF's forecast models point to a temperature rise of over 2.5C by autumn.
For readers following the forecast, the next step is not a political decision or a formal vote. It is the weather itself: temperatures in the tropical Pacific over the next few months, the winter strength call, and whether the autumn peak reaches the very strong or super range NOAA is now signaling.
