Intuit Trades 48.5% Below DCF Estimate, Analyst Model Says
Intuit is trading at a 48.5% discount to a discounted cash flow estimate, according to a Simply Wall St model that values the stock at $783.06 per share versus a current price of $403.16. The gap comes after a 39.4% one-year return decline, leaving the shares priced well below the model’s cash-flow outlook.
Intuit and the 48.5% gap
48.5% is the headline spread between the model and the market price, and it is built on a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. Simply Wall St projected Intuit’s Free Cash Flow at $11.75b in 2030, up from about $6.76b in the latest twelve months, which is the mechanical lift behind the higher valuation.
$783.06 per share is the model’s intrinsic value, and it sits far above the $403.16 trading price. For readers weighing the stock on cash generation rather than sentiment, that means the current quote leaves a wide divide between what the model says Intuit could be worth and what the market is paying today.
Intuit versus software peers
25.69x is Intuit’s current P/E, below the Software industry average of 27.84x and far under the peer group average of 50.47x. Simply Wall St also put Intuit’s Fair Ratio at 34.19x, which puts the stock below that benchmark as well.
34.19x matters because it gives a separate reference point from the DCF estimate, and both yardsticks point in the same direction: Intuit is not priced like a high-multiple software name at the moment. If the cash-flow projection holds, the market is already discounting a slower path than the model assumes.
Simply Wall St narratives on Intuit
US$330 per share and US$843 per share are the two narrative values on Simply Wall St’s Community page. Those views reflect different assumptions about Intuit’s AI, mid market expansion and cash generation, so the stock’s valuation debate is not just about one number.
39.4% is the one-year return that keeps the argument live for shareholders: the market has already marked the stock down sharply, yet the DCF model still prices it well above the current quote. Investors following the name now have three reference points in front of them — the market price, the cash-flow model, and the peer-based P/E measures — and they point in different directions.
