Larter Says Thwaites Ice Shelf Could Detach Suddenly
Thwaites glacier’s ice shelf is set to break away, and satellite images show it may already be tearing apart. Rob Larter of the British Antarctic Survey said its final demise could happen suddenly, and that an obituary press release has already been prepared.
The Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is about the size of Greater London, spans 1,500 square kilometres and is 350 metres thick. Christian Wild said, "Suddenly, large areas are just falling to pieces" as new fractures opened around the pinning point and along the grounding line.
Thwaites Glacier Pressure
Thwaites is Antarctica’s most threatened glacier and is about the size of Britain. It is already responsible for 4 per cent of all global sea-level rise, and its collapse is expected to set off a domino effect in the West Antarctic ice sheet that could raise sea level by 3.3 metres.
That wider outcome is why the floating shelf in front of the glacier has drawn close attention. Many Antarctic glaciers form ice shelves that float onto the ocean and buttress the flow of ice from the continent, and Thwaites’ eastern shelf is the one now showing the sharpest signs of failure.
Satellite Images And Fractures
Wild said the shelf’s flow tripled from January 2020 to January 2026 to just over 2,000 metres per year. He added, "It’s essentially in free fall now."
Karen Alley said the changes are visible in recent satellite images. She said, "It’s dramatic. I was there in 2019/2020 and when I look at the satellite images now, I don’t recognise the shelf. There are huge gashes where there used to be none".
Alley also said, "It’s gone from a thick, strong ice shelf that is very well grounded on this pinning point to a thin, weak ice shelf that is now splitting apart around the point that used to stabilise it". The shelf has thinned from melting linked to changes in ocean circulation, and new rifts have been opening along the grounding line in the last few years.
What Breakaway Means
By some measures, the break-up is already under way. Huge fractures are opening around the pinning point and along the grounding line, and the shelf’s flow accelerated further in the past five months.
For readers tracking Thwaites, the immediate fact is simple: the floating barrier is no longer holding its shape, and the glacier behind it is moving faster. Larter’s warning about a sudden end fits the evidence now visible from space.
