Social Security 2027 Cola Estimate Rises to 3.9%, Alex Moore Says
The social security 2027 cola estimate rose to 3.9% on May 13, 2026, according to the Senior Citizens League, which said the figure reflects inflation pressures building ahead of the official calculation. Alex Moore, a statistician for the group, said the projection had climbed from earlier in the year and would not be set until October 2026.
Alex Moore and the 3.9%
Moore said the estimate was moving higher after spending much of the year below that level. “This is up quite a bit from earlier in the year, when our projection generally sat between 2% and 3%,” he said in an email to CBS News.
The same report said the average retired worker received $2,071 a month as of January. A 3.9% increase would add $80.77 to that check and lift it to about $2,152.
Inflation Through September
The 2027 adjustment will be based on inflation from July through September, so the final figure can still move before it is set. The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April 2026 and 3.3% in March 2026, after seniors received a 2026 COLA of 2.8%.
Moore tied the higher estimate to energy costs. “As we go throughout the year, rising oil prices have the potential to worsen the situation,” he said. He added, “Higher energy prices make it more expensive to farm crops, transport goods and services, and even operate the machinery to produce goods in factories.”
Senior Citizens League
The Senior Citizens League said Social Security benefits have lost almost 14% of their value over the last decade because the inflation index used to set the annual COLA does not accurately reflect seniors’ costs. That leaves retirees waiting on the final inflation readings from late summer before the October calculation locks in the 2027 increase.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget offered a separate forecast on Tuesday, putting the 2027 COLA at 3.8% and saying it could range from 3% to 4.5% depending on inflation over the next several months. It also said a higher COLA would worsen Social Security’s shortfall by roughly $300 billion over the next decade and advance the insolvency of the old-age trust fund by three months from late 2032 to earlier in the year.
