Ryan Bridge urges more positivity amid Taiwan and trade risks
Ryan Bridge said New Zealand needs its number-8 wire, positive, can-do, problem solver attitude now more than ever, arguing the country should stay positive as global trade and geopolitical risks intensify. He said the pressure points run from Air New Zealand’s operating strain to China, Taiwan, oil and the possibility of sanctions.
Ryan Bridge on trade pressure
Bridge said New Zealand is an export nation and depends heavily on China, which he described as the country’s number one trading partner. He said China accounts for 20-25% of New Zealand’s exports, and warned that if events unfolded as expected, Western sanctions would follow and “the tap gets turned off” when sanctions affect New Zealand goods.
He also said a Taiwan conflict could hit the world hard, with global GDP falling 5% if Taiwan kicks off. In his view, New Zealand would be badly exposed to any quarantine or blockade, because the country’s trade base is tied to overseas shipping, manufacturing and demand.
Beijing and Taiwan
Bridge said he lived in Beijing and recalled Taiwan as a constant topic of conversation there, along with Hong Kong. He said Taiwan and Hong Kong are very important to Chinese people for historical and strategic reasons, and added that China’s eastern seaboard is central to its economic success because it sits close to Beijing, Shanghai and major manufacturing and heavy-industry port cities.
He said some in the intelligence community reckon a Taiwan conflict could happen as early as next year. He also said the world could be held to ransom over semiconductors rather than oil if Taiwan kicks off, pointing to how much of the global economy now depends on chip supply.
Air New Zealand strain
Bridge used Air New Zealand as an example of recurring pressure, saying the airline is in the doldrums. He said Greg Foran had Covid at Air New Zealand and Nikhil Ravishankar has a jet fuel crisis, adding that “the next guy will have something else” and “the hits won’t stop coming.”
He said New Zealand should not freak out but should be prepared and stay positive. His closing line was direct: “The best we can do is diversify, back ourselves, and stay positive.”
